Validation Results
Purpose of this page
Below are tables that summarize systems that have predicted results for the last three years of college football and basketball. The only systems listed are those that have reported for each of the last three seasons, and have appeared on Todd Beck's The Prediction Tracker Website.
Big takeaways:
- The best systems predict about 72% of winners correctly, whether it's college football or college basketball.
- It is virtually impossible to beat Las Vegas at predicting winners. (This should make sense, given that their "predictions" are not solely computerized but are adjusted by humans/oddsmakers to account for the betting markets.)
Who has the best college football system?
Over the last three years, it's almost impossible to consistently beat the Las Vegas line. Whether it's the midweek game line, or the updated line on the day of the game, Vegas is consistently the best at this. For a typical Division 1 football season, about 700 games are played -- so a 1% difference corresponds to about 7 game errors.
The "average" column is just the average of the three yearly percentages, so I'm assuming that each year is weighted equally (even if the number of games from year to year is different. Stars indicate systems that performed better than the updated line in that year.
System Average 2023 2022 2021
------------------------- --------- ------- ------- -------
Line (updated) 72.4% 73.7% 71.5% *71.8%*
Line (Midweek) 72.3% 73.7% *72.0%* 71.2%
Computer Adjusted Line 72.1% 73.5% 71.4% 71.3%
Dokter Entropy 72.0% *74.0%* 70.4% 71.7%
Pi-Ratings Mean 71.8% 73.4% 71.1% 70.9%
------------------------- --------- ------- ------- -------
Pi-Rate Ratings 71.8% *74.3%* 71.1% 69.9%
PI-Rate Bias 71.6% 73.4% 70.2% 71.0%
Donchess Inference 71.5% 72.7% 70.1% 71.7%
TeamRankings.com 71.5% 73.7% 70.4% 70.4%
Line (opening) 71.4% 72.9% 70.6% 70.8%
------------------------- --------- ------- ------- -------
Keeper 71.4% 73.5% 69.5% 71.0%
Laz Index 71.3% 73.5% 68.9% 71.4%
David Harville 71.2% 73.7% 69.5% 70.4%
System Median 71.2% *74.0%* 69.3% 70.1%
Edward Kambour 71.1% 73.6% 68.9% 70.9%
------------------------- --------- ------- ------- -------
System Average 71.1% *73.9%* 68.8% 70.6%
Sagarin Ratings 71.1% 73.4% 70.7% 69.1%
ESPN FPI 70.9% 72.6% 70.4% 69.9%
Versus Sports Simulator 70.9% 72.7% 69.7% 70.1%
Sagarin Recent 70.8% 73.2% 70.0% 69.2%
------------------------- --------- ------- ------- -------
Sagarin Points 70.5% 73.5% 68.9% 69.2%
ARGH Power Ratings 70.5% 72.3% 67.5% 71.7%
Massey Ratings 70.3% 72.2% 69.7% 69.1%
Born Power Index 70.2% 72.7% 69.5% 68.4%
Stat Fox 70.0% 72.3% 69.0% 68.7%
------------------------- --------- ------- ------- -------
Howell 70.0% 71.5% 67.7% 70.8%
Moore Power Ratings 70.0% 72.7% 68.0% 69.2%
Dunkel Index 69.9% 72.5% 69.6% 67.6%
Daniel Curry Index 69.9% 72.2% 68.6% 69.0%
Laffaye RWP 69.9% 71.2% 68.3% 70.1%
------------------------- --------- ------- ------- -------
Talisman Red 69.9% 71.5% 69.2% 69.0%
Sagarin Golden Mean 69.9% 73.4% 68.0% 68.2%
Stephen Kerns 69.8% 71.5% 69.1% 68.8%
FEI Projections 69.6% 73.0% 67.6% 68.3%
Beck Elo 69.6% 71.3% 67.8% 69.6%
------------------------- --------- ------- ------- -------
PerformanZ Ratings 69.2% 70.2% 66.6% 70.9%
Roundtable 69.0% 69.4% 68.3% 69.2%
Loudsound.org 67.3% 70.1% 66.4% 65.4%
Cleanup Hitter 66.6% 68.2% 64.8% 66.9%
------------------------- --------- ------- ------- -------
Who has the best college basketball system?
Over the last three years, you just can't beat the Las Vegas opening line! For a typical Division 1 basketball season, about 6,000 games are played -- so a 1% difference corresponds to about 60 game errors.
The "average" column is just the average of the three yearly percentages, so I'm assuming that each year is weighted equally (even if the number of games from year to year is different. Stars indicate the best-performing system or method in that year.
System Average 2023-24 2022-23 2021-22
-------------------- --------- --------- --------- ---------
Opening Line *72.8%* *72.8%* *72.9%* 72.7%
Dokter Entropy 72.2% 72.0% 71.7% *73.0%*
System Average 72.1% 71.7% 72.0% 72.5%
Teamrankings.com 72.0% 71.1% 72.4% 72.5%
ESPN BPI 72.0% 71.4% 71.9% 72.6%
-------------------- --------- --------- --------- ---------
KenPom[1] 71.9% 72.0% 71.6% 72.2%
Line[2] 71.7% 71.5% 71.6% 72.0%
StatFox 71.4% 70.8% 71.1% 72.3%
TalismanRed 71.0% 70.4% 71.0% 71.6%
Sonny Moore 71.0% 70.9% 70.8% 71.3%
-------------------- --------- --------- --------- ---------
Massey Ratings 70.9% 71.2% 70.7% 70.6%
Dunkel Index 70.7% 70.7% 70.4% 70.9%
RoundTable 70.6% 70.2% 70.3% 71.2%
Pi-Ratings Red 70.2% 70.2% 68.9% 71.5%
SevenOvertimes.com 69.5% 68.1% 70.1% 70.2%
-------------------- --------- --------- --------- ---------
Data note 1: Ken Pomeroy (KenPom) provides his model results in a paywalled section of his website, so I have pulled those from there. That's the only exception to the data policy described above.
Data note 2: I *think* this is the updated line at tipoff time (compared to the game's opening line). I'll check with Todd to confirm.
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