David Rothman ranking system

Description of David's system

In the Rothman system, the following principles apply:

  • All games are weighted evenly -- distant games matter just as much as recent games
  • Location is ignored
  • So that only margin of victory matters, but a "diminishing returns" principle applies so that running up the score does not gain you much favor

The system balances performance (wins and losses) and scoring (margin of victory/loss) and strength of schedule (who you play & how you score against them).

Historical information about David's system

The Rothman rankings were one of the original computer ranking systems used in the Bowl Championship Series, from 1998 to 2001.  The BCS then decided they wanted to remove all influence of margin of victory -- to be "politically correct" as Jeff Sagarin once told me -- but David did not want to modify his system, and so he dropped out of the BCS the following year.

Where to get David's code

I have shared the source code via GitHub, so please download and enjoy!

Example output

Here is what the Rothman rankings looked like right before the 2024 national championship game (Michigan over Washington).

Full file at: https://talismanred.com/ratings/cf/standing.db

             < DAVID ROTHMAN'S COLLEGE FOOTBALL RANKINGS >
    BASED ON 4206 GAMES BETWEEN  770 TEAMS, AND NO OTHER INFORMATION
                THROUGH GAMES OF MONDAY 1 JANUARY 2024
      FOUNDATION FOR THE ANALYSIS OF COMPETITIONS AND TOURNAMENTS
 
  RANK   TEAM               DIVISION  LOGIT  PCT.  RRE    PF   PA  W  L
 
    1 Michigan               Big 10  131.42  .948  .995  504  143 14  0
    2 Georgia                SEC I-  126.00  .896  .990  562  219 13  1
    3 Washington             Pacifi  124.90  .877  .989  527  338 14  0
    4 Alabama                SEC I-  121.89  .795  .986  476  266 12  2
    5 Oregon                 Pacifi  121.63  .857  .986  619  231 12  2
    6 Ohio State             Big 10  119.80  .821  .983  397  146 11  2
    7 Texas                  Big 12  118.56  .818  .981  501  265 12  2
    8 Florida St             ACC I-  118.52  .859  .981  484  270 13  1
    9 Missouri               SEC I-  116.88  .783  .978  423  271 11  2
   10 Mississippi            SEC I-  116.51  .777  .978  456  293 11  2

 

Page updated on August 9th, 2024


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